John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity

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Population models, in particular individual‐based models (IBM), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. We used an IBM coupled to a toxicokinetic‐toxicodynamic model, the threshold damage model (TDM), to assess recovery times for 4 aquatic organisms, after insecticide application, in a non‐seasonal environment and in 3 spatial settings (pond, stream and ditch). The species had different life history (e.g. voltinism, reproductive capacity, mobility). Exposure was derived from a pesticide fate model, following standard EU scenarios. We compared the results of the IBM‐TDM with results from simpler models: one in which exposure was linked to effects by means of concentration‐effect relationships (IBM‐CE) and one in which the IBM was replaced by a non‐spatial, logistic growth model (Logistic). For the first, exposure was based on peak concentrations only; for the second, exposure was spatially‐averaged as well. Comparing between models of different complexity and species with different life history we obtained an understanding of the role spatial processes play in recovery, and the conditions under which the full time‐varying exposure needs to be considered. The Logistic model, amenable to an analytic approach, provided additional insights in the sensitivity of recovery times to density dependence and spatial dimensions. Environ Toxicol Chem © 2014 SETAC

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