South West Africa and Nigeria Agribusiness Market Report Q3 2013

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Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

Although oil is by far the biggest foreign exchange earner for the Nigerian economy, cocoa has also made a significant contribution in recent years, bringing in 900mn USD in export earnings in 2012, according to the government. However, the short to medium term prospects for the sector have been darkened by the fall in global prices expected in 2013 and 2014 as global demand continues to flatline. Despite the government’s desire to increase Nigeria’s market share, a temporary setback to production could be disastrous for the sector. Meanwhile, rice importers have tried to beat government tariff hikes by buying in stocks before the new rules and smuggling is on the rise as criminal gangs take advantage of restrictions on rice and poultry imports.

Key Forecasts

- Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 37% to 378,000 tonnes. Demand will continue to outstrip supply with smuggling increasing to meet consumer demand for frozen poultry.

- Rice consumption growth to 2017: 28.2% to 6.7mn tonnes. Tariff hikes imposed by the government are unlikely to have the desired effect as lower prices in the global market will combine with higher incomes to sustain steady growth in consumption of mostly imported rice.

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South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

We have made changes to our South West Africa grain production forecasts on the back of changes to historical data. Overall, we estimate higher production for the region in 2011/12 than we had projected in Q412. Food security will remain a vital concern for the region; however, we believe food security will be relatively stable in the coming months even amid historically elevated prices. This is partly because grain production in key players such as Angola and Zambia was expected to have remained strong so far, although pockets of food security are being recorded in some regions. Regarding the region’s sugar sector, we believe Zambia is on pace to remain the key producer and exporter in the region.

Key Views

- Zambian corn production growth to 2016/17: 17.0% to 3.2mn tonnes. This will come as government support and the expectation of high corn prices lead to a continued rise in corn plantings in the coming years.
- Zambian sugar production growth to 2016/17: 22.9% to 534,800 tonnes. Increased presence of the private sector has improved production methods and encouraged the use of fertilisers. The Zambian government also has recently increased its support to the agriculture sector in order to lessen its dependence on the mining sector.
- 2013 regional average real GDP growth: 6.5% for 2013, up from 6.1% in 2012. Expected to average 6.1% from 2013 to 2017.
- Regional average consumer price inflation: 7.5% year-on-year in 2013, down from 7.7% in 2012.

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