A uniquely quantified and objective approach.Regions Lead Time.Valid information at longer lead times.TempRisk formulates the odds of extreme weather events up to 40 days in advance -- a lead time that is almost twice as long as any in the industry.
TempRisk is the first commercial application with scientifically validated statistical methods that analyze the risks for extreme heat and cold events up to 40 days in advance. That's twice as long as the most useful conventional forecasts.
“Forecast heat waves 40 days out? There's a tool for that -- EarthRisk Technologies goes where National Weather Service has never gone before.”msnbc.com,Aug 2, 2011
For research and energy trading communities, TempRisk provides a long-awaited solution to the “black hole” that has plagued efforts to predict weather within the 20-40 day lead-time. TempRisk clients can now look beyond model forecasting, which begins to break down significantly in accuracy beyond 10 days.
TempRisk analytics allow for an entirely new forecasting method; an independent approach that can’t be found anywhere else. Using advanced algorithms to process 60+ years of global weather patterns, TempRisk's results are based strictly on science and math. The goal? Completely objective guidance to help our clients take the second-guessing out of forecasting that comes when using the models and their subjective interpretation alone.
'Big Data' comes to weather: TempRisk's innovative, objective approach TempRisk is a breakthrough tool that uses more than 60 years of global weather pattern analysis along with current observational data to objectively quantify the risk for future extreme temperature events.
TempRisk is a new approach to weather analysis.
Everyday the TempRisk web-based platform processes:
- 1.3 billion calculations
- 200 weather patterns
- References against data compiled over 10,000 days of observations
- Global regions
The result: an unbiased quantitative forecast that identifies the relationships between historical weather patterns, current observational data and long-range (subseasonal) extreme temperature events.
TempRisk's unique ability to quickly quantify and catalog large synoptic weather data sets is a game changer. TempRisk shows weather pattern relationships (and the subsequent temperature events) that are not always intuitive and therefore often missed using other forecasting methods.
TempRisk presents the data in an intuitive web-based interface that provides businesses with daily access to the odds of extreme heat waves and cold snaps up to 40 days in advance. The software is designed with daily operational decision makers in mind.
The atmospheric research and patent-pending algorithms that are at the core of the TempRisk platform were developed at the University of California San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography. EarthRisk is proud to be an ongoing research partner with Scripps as well as the exclusive commercial licensee to this technology.
“There is a dearth of guidance covering the subseasonal time ranges (generally 16-30 day). And even strict adherence to a regimen of climate-weather monitoring and diagnosis, which can reveal behaviors linking the tropics, extratropics, as well as synoptic and lower frequency scales of motion, has its drawbacks. A real strength of TempRisk, in my mind, is its ability to find relationships between long-range extreme events and weather patterns that may elude detection using conventional means.”
State-of-the-art software: Creating a market advantage
TempRisk's suite of intuitive software tools allows you to bring the weather into the decision making process in an 'advantaged' way.
The weather affects your business.
On a day-to-day basis, weather can be the single most volatile external factor influencing market behavior. For those harvesting crops, organizing complex supply chains, managing the energy grid or investing in oil and gas, advanced knowledge of the increased risk for extreme temperature events creates an 'advantage play' opportunity. In short, it is money in the bank.
TempRisk provides our users the opportunity to identify mis-priced or mis-allocated markets before anyone else -- thus enabling better positioning and better preparation. Trading groups, power producers and energy traders around the globe use TempRisk for a climatological edge in their financial and operational decision making.
An example of the TempRisk advantage was in early winter 2011. Much of the commercial meteorology world thought the season would be blisteringly cold in the East US region. But TempRisk presented a different picture. Starting in early November, TempRisk analyses repeatedly indicated elevated HeatRisk and no ColdRisk events for the East US. The HeatRisk scores were as much as 20 to 30 percent above climatology indicating what many weather forecasts did not: Early winter 2011 in the East US featured an elevated risk of warmth … not cold. In fact, during winter 2011, when TempRisk observed an 'actionable HeatRisk signal' in the Midwest/East US at lead times longer than ten days, the HeatRisk events verified 79 percent of the time.
At EarthRisk, we are devoted to making the breadth and depth of our research as intuitive as possible for our end user. TempRisk translates 6,000 pages of weather research data into an a easy-to-use interface that provides forecast guidance with user-selected Regions, the TempRisk Scorecard, the TempRisk Matrix, Daily Summary email updates and access to an extensive Research Portal.
“It is very difficult to produce consistent, high returns based on short- and medium-term forecasts, given the competitive nature of energy trading and the wide availability of weather consulting services. A reliable forecast of high-impact weather events with a 20-30 day horizon allows traders to develop an optimal strategy and accumulate positions over time without moving the market.”