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Sensitivity analysis of the CERES-wheat model for variations in CO2 and meteorological factors in Northwest Turkey

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Plant growth is very sensitive to variations in atmospheric factors. Possible effects of climate change on plant growth can be estimated and evaluated using the crop growth simulation models. In this study, the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model was applied to two consequent growing seasons (1997–1998 and 1998–1999) in order to determine the model sensitivity on the changes in several meteorological factors such as air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. In the model, the air temperature variations were applied from ±1°C up to ±2°C and CO2 were changed in the range of 20% to 100%, while the solar radiation, precipitation were varied between 10% and 20%. Biomass and the grain yield of the wheat crop were influenced positively by the increased combination of the solar radiation, air temperature and CO2. However, low crop responses to the variations in precipitation were unexpected.

Keywords: climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment, crop growth simulation models, plant growth, meteorological factors, air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, biomass, wheat growth, global warming, Turkey

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